[ת]ҵ--¼•˾CIOѡˣת
ѶCIO滮ڣ2015-11-29 12:26:17      523
Ƽ޹˾:ṩȫCIO滮Ѷ
ԭĵַҵ--¼•˾CIOѡˣתߣzwg18205
        



  • ■ ǰһƪд54յӢ(http://streetcapitalist.com/2010/05/04/li-lu-berkshire-hathaway-cio-candidate/)ǹ¼ģֵڡ¼кܶƵͬϾ顢ӱɽ˵ȣ¼ֽ֮ƸӰȻҴˣҸҲܲѽҸо:-)Ƚ·¡
  • ¼Dz•˾CIOѡ
  • •˾(Berkshire HathawayNYSE: BRK.A / BRK.B)ĩٿȹɶᡣʱ•ͷ(Warren Buffett)ڸù˾CIOѡ³•â(Charlie Munger)ӦĿǰһܽӽĺѡˣúѡ2009ҵͻܸ(0 leverage)200%رƲ⣬âָǸ˾¼(Li Lu)¼һλˣ
  • ǵ(BYD)ܸâͰͷصġ
  • ¼˳2%ǵϹɷݣù2009ֵ400%һ⣬Ҳ˽¼κͶΪ֪һdzרעļᶨˡ¼ڱǵϵľ˱֣ʹ2009Ͷʻرﵽ200%Ϊ˿ܡ
  • ¼ 
  • ¼1966йͶϾѧڸױǴѧͬʱѧλ(ѧʿѧʿ̹˶ʿ)ҵһͶְ1997꣬¼ϲʱ˾(Himalaya Capital Management)ù˾ĿǰӵͶʻ(LL Investment PartnersHimalaya Capital Ventures)ڹе֤ȯͶʡͶʡ¼2001걻羭̳Ϊȫ֮һ1998Ϊ˹ѧԺThe Aspen InstituteHenry CrownĿرԱ¼Ҳһ⽻(Council on Foreign Relations and Young Presidents Organization)ίԱԱ
  • û̫¼ͶʷĽܡڴԸ¼2006ڸױѧԺʱIJαʼǡЩʼǶġΪ˱벻ҪЩʼǵԭһȷţЩʼǺԶģرǹ߷ߺͶ߸IJ֡ʹ¼Dz•˾CIOѡˣΪһзḻʵͶߣֵͬѧϰ
  • ҵαʼǡ
  • ¼ڸױѧԺ(2006)
  • - 15ǰżȻ¼μһ•ͷصĽһЩ¼ԼƺҲͶʲô
  • - ʱ¼ոйʶܶˡûǮǷ˲ծı
  • - ڰͷؽУʹԹƱг˲ͬʶ
  • - ¼Խ˼ԽãҲͶʲô
  • - ֵͶ߰ԼͶʹ˾ߡƸŹ˾Ӫ״Ӻͼ١
  • - Ҫȫ̶ȣMargin of Safety)
  • ֵͶߵ
  • 1. ϣ㲻ԼֻDz֤ͣȯġԱԼ˾ߡ
  • 2. Ϊֻӵиù˾Сһ֣Ҫȫ̶ȡ
  • 3. Լ˾ߣ㲻ƵףΪ˺㲻һЩ˺񱾽•Benjamin Graham)˵ġг(Mr. Market)
  • ڼֵͶ
  • - ֵͶֻȫʱ5%¡Ͷеġ塹
  • - ƱгΪ95%ġǼֵͶߵĻսڡ
  • - ͷؽʱһʺһֱ¼ԺС
  • - ս˽Լ5%ģ95%ġ
  • - 95%DzȥǺջġ5%DzȥڸǺѵģֵܼͶͨнϺûرġǮǸЩ۸ʲĽߵġ
  • - 5%о˻رģ95%DzֵǮǴʲôط
  • - ˽Լᱻ顣ҪԼDzһֵͶߡ
  • - һֵͶߣҪаڡ塹һԱĻ򡣶ÿ˵ⲢȻġҪԼҪܺͼЩԼɺ֤ݵ⣬Ϊͬ㡣
  • - Ҫʱ䣬ȥһѧоߡһо߻ߣ˽ࡣҪйصһС
  • - ˽Խ࣬ͶʾͻԽá
  • - ΡѧѧʫȣκζܶӰͰ
  • - ʱᷢijЩ㼫Ķûеġ
  • - ףһҹ˾DzDZˣôʲô㻹û뵽Ϊʲôỹ
  • - ¼Ļʼ1997ĩش¼޽Σĭ
  • - 1998¼оʮֹ㷺ڼֵ(value line)ϲѶͷβЩܺõѧϰ볹ͷβ˽⹫˾ԣҪôÿһҳҪа
  • - ¼Ȳµ嵥µ͵ӯ(P/Es)о(P/Bs)ȡ
  • - ̫ǰĶ
  • - ȿֵֵʣʹס
  • - һ͵оʣһ£ô˵Ƕ٣
  • - й㷺֪ʶԹעͬҵʱа
  • - ˰ǰϢǰ롣ܸǰ׼(un-leveraged basis)˾Ͷʽ𣬿ʱͶر(ROIC)
  • (Timberland)
  • - 5ӿһҹ˾첮סҹ˾ɾ󲿷ʲӪʱټ1ڲͶʱ2ڣ1ڡ
  • - ȻΪʲôҹ˾»ɼ۱ñˣԼҹ˾ȫߡ
  • - ʱֵ޽Σ⣬޵۶»صһУ»ô˾㲻һҪӱ֪ô
  • - ûκηʦ̸첮ס
  • - Ϊʲôû̸첮أ
  • - һ¸ù˾ȥı֡첮һֱڳɳӪ״áҪͶг⡣ӵ40%ɷݣ98%Ȩ
  • - ʶ˶ѡܿˡѸݲѯ
  • - Ҫһϸµġ̬ȥ⡢Ҵ𰸡
  • - 첮׼ҪȨʦעһЩȨϡͶг95%һԱΪ첮׹եȡù˾
  • - ÿһϵķͥļǡҪһdzϸµ̬ȥʲôÿһζȥھͨļ
  • - һΣӴ¿һйصġռ⣬о
  • - ǹ첮ײָϢͶˡҲЩ˾ǡ뻪ֹͨˡϲǹեɹ˾թ㲻Ƕ
  • ôȷǺõĹߡЩɵأ
  • - һȥ顣˾()߶һЩۼȥ˽⣬δ빫˾޹ص״רҵͶʾǣȥ๤5%һԱ
  • - ߽ȥӴЩʶǵˣȥǵĽ̻ãȥʶǵѺھӡʱ䣬ֵõġǹȥЩ£ھô˵ǡͿ׼ȷ˽ǵ˸
  • - ׿Ǹ򵥡ˣбҵӶѧԺ¼£ǹ˾ϯӪ(COO)ˡ¼ĶЩ»ְע⵽һͬѡ跨ȥڵһ»ᣬܿͶӳΪѡʶö»ԱһЩƷζɵˡ
  • - 󣬷ֻƱǺܵ͡Ҳûʲô©ˡ95%DzDzЩоģijֳʽ˼άֹȥһƱ
  • - 㲻һõķߣԶҲΪһõͶߡ
  • - ǾҪ롣أܼ900Ǯ95%Dz˻һ㣬50顣רעģͶ200顣һ˶ٹ¼̵꣬Ӯߣ˾ƳǶҪһϵз糱ЬӡгģСֻǽ5%
  • - ¼첮˴ע귢ʲôأƱֵ700%һֱûκ---5Ĺֵ15Ĺֵÿ30%ˡ
  • Ϊһѧϰ
  • - һͶʻ٣ҪץסҪҹҹͶ룬ſжѸ١ҪҪ졣ҪѵԼץסᡣ
  • - ḡʱǿŵζġһ㣬ֻͨѵԼĶһҳһҳ񱨸档
  • - ñ׼ն(S&P)ֲƱ
  • - Ϊһ˾ߣDz˼ÿ״ġ
  • - ôԣƱֲʱÿһҳֻҪ5ӡҪüԴ㡣
  • һҺ˾
  • - ֵ6ǧ˰ǰ3ǧ1ֵԼ˰ǰ2
  • - ֵ23ǧֵʲôɣߣῴ̶ʲʽ𣬲Ҫ(goodwill)
  • - ϣ㿴ֵ6ǧ˰ǰ3ǧֵ24ǧ(й̶ʲ18ǧ)
  • - ܱˡ
  • - ȷԴ档Ӫʱ
  • - óʶ߼˼ҹ˾
  • - 󲿷ԱûϹѧԺ¼ǻױѵ
  • - Ŀǰʲ7ǧȫֽ
  • - 18ǧ̶ʲУȫӵһҾƵ꣬3ǧӵһҰٻ̵13%ɷݣ3ǧ
  • - һǼҰٻ̵ֵ꣬Լ6ڡ13%Լ8ǧټ5ǧ
  • - ӵ3ߵӹ˾15%ɷݣһЩ
  • - ǼҰٻ̵ͬҪֽ׺ͶʡãӵвʲǻǵڶߵӪ̡
  • - ǼҰٻ̵ӪǼҾƵ꣬ûдһҹġ
  • - ǶƷۣȡһٷֱȷá
  • - ۺ6ǧ7ǧֽ1ڵĹƱ3ǧľƵ(10δˣزг˺ܶ)ȥʵؿƵͰٻ̵ꡣ
  • - ڽزϣֵԼ23ϣټ15ǧ򡣺ӣʲ32ǧ򡣸6ǧÿӪ3ǧ
  • - ܶض㻹ҪͶôɼʱҪԸ롣
  • - ٻ̵ɼ22100
  • - Ǽҹ˾ɼ12Լ70
  • - ֻƱ56
  • ҪֻҪ
  • - Ҫһ㣬Ͷ˵ġ
  • - ȷԼԸ쳣һģԳȥƱгȷʵǿǮģѾ¨Benjamin Graham)Ͱͷ֤ˡ
  • - Ҫ
  • - ȤǮȥҪ
  • - ¼ӼֵͶʽ棬Ȼ߳ȥȥ
  • - ֵͶʵۡʵ
  • - оûʲôģǸҪȥ
  • - ڳΪһõͶǰҪΪһõķߡ
  • ¼˵ΪһõķߣҪ
  • 1. ṩ׼ȷϢҪ롣ʱǹġ˽ò֣̬ʧءÿ˶ЦʱվȽŸ
  • 2. ڹƱĴ󲿷ǮǴӰѧġṩ档ѧϰеϲʡ(Tweedy BrowneGraham)߰ͷءâ(BuffettMunger)ԹƱҪо˵ĶҪͨġŵġϸµоſɻá
  • Ͷʴ
  • - 󲿷ִڲ׼ȷϢɵġ
  • - 󣺴󲿷˫ܻ¼ûرг»Ѱͻơ
  • - ¼ʧ򣬵ʱں޲ѷ(Julian Robertson)һͷ(Shorting)ͷ½ռȴû޶ȡâ˵սʱ˫ֱ
  • - УƱֵֵֽ(Below Cash)˾Ļᡣ¼ʱ˽Ŷӣи˼⡣Ǽҹ˾50100¼ʱû룬ֻһ֮䡣
  • - ˷ʱΪ̫ϲǼҹ˾ˣ㲢ûо㿪ʼԣûнʵԷ
  • Ѱ
  • - һ֮Уֻ510μ߶ʱֻ̡ͨϵѧϰܻá
  • - һ˾Ȼһ޹˾ȽϡЩ˾ѱо15ˡҪǼҹ˾ʲôġճתڷȷݡ㣬ͺг档
  • - еϲ15-20%Ļرаͷľ޴ر
  • - õ򱶻ر
  • - ֻᲢסҪܶؼһ----âġЧӦ(Lollapalooza Effect)㶴һ㿪ʼжһ𷢽ͣԸȥͶע
  • - Щ¼ͶʵĶ
  • - ¼ѧɡÿʼѧƲȤ̫̫ѧʿѧλ̫̫ѧܶණ
  • - һѧϰǿҵĺġ
  • - ײһᡣ
  • - ͬʱײ첮(Timberland)ͶʻᣬҲ
  • - ܺܶ겻лᣬҲܽкܶᡣ
  • - ҪЩٵͷˡⲻйģÿһģʽ
  • - 6У¼й34dzõ⡣ԽԽãӣΪķٶڼӿ졣
  • - ÿѧʲôһͻѧٶ
  • - ¼ʷʱѰ⣻ʱij⣬ͻȻ
  • - ʱ̫̫һ¼ͬԴѧϰ˵֪̫Ҫˡ
  • ¼Ͷ嵥
  • 1. ı
  • 2. һҺù˾
  • 3. ˭ڹù˾
  • 4. һЩ©
  • ¼嵥ʱһЩ©ں̶ܴϱӰ졣¼ںŮˣУҵ˽취
  • ֵͶߵص
  • 1. ˾̬
  • 2. ʱڸı
  • 3. Ҫİȫ̶ȣMargin of Safety)
  • ˾˼
  • - ؼǣҹ˾ߡ޷ǿȹ˾ı䣬Ҫȫ̶ȡгԶ۹⣬˾˼롣
  • - ΪʲôԹƱгƱгǸЩε˴ġΪʲô95%Dz˴ûֵͶʡԵľޡ
  • - 㲻95%ĹƱгҪһ㡢Լ׼ȷλ˾˼룬ջ뿪ʲȥһĹ˾ˡΪʲôͷغâȥɹ˾ȥˡ
  • - ߣԳΪһ˽ļ(Private equity)Ͷߡ
  • - ϣƱгǸЩȱݵƵġԾԾȥףڿ־̰ķŸʽĴ󡣵ֵܻͶߴռ䡣
  • - ù˾ʱϸŶ¼ڸϲЩڸĽĹ˾
  • - кù˾һɣ乫˾쳣ɫ
  • - ƱʱҪܶ˰ûкʼ۸ˡ
  • - һҹ˾ͶʱرʣROICﵽ50-100%ļͻȤˡ
  • - ҪġͶʵҵǣʹʲծ(BS)عߣ滮Ԥﵽʱ䡣Ĺ滮Ԥﲻôʱ䡣ֻмλᣬĹ滮ԤҲȽϳ
  • - Ļ50ְҵģܻ510λᣬԺĵع滮Ԥ1020ꡣͲˡšͲýʱ(Capital Gain)˰ʵڵ40%Ϣ˾ں˰ÿ40-100%ʽҪġ
  • - ҪҳЩÿ궼ڳɳĹ˾
  • - ʲôʹҹ˾ĸɹأΪʲôȶָǮأ
  • - Ҫ˽ЩҪоЩѾ͵Ĺ˾
  • - ȥЩù˾ڰͷеЩ
  • һѰ˾(Bloomberg L.P.)
  • - Ʒڶ֡ûתֲƷʱҪϸ߷(high switching costs)
  • - ˾һһ޶İ
  • - һгݶijһ̱¢ϡ
  • - ÿһתÿʼȻתƾ߶switching costsӮͨԡ
  • - лῴҵڳνijһʱ̣dz˳
  • - Ҳÿһҵһʱ㣬ijҹ˾й˾ֱ¢ϡ
  • - Ϊʲô΢ɹƻһһʳƻ100%гݶ
  • - ʹ΢Ӵ죬㻹ѡ񡢲
  • - ÿ¶㣬ʲôʹϵͳĸܡնṩǧĹܣȴṩֲᡣ
  • - ץסγϰߣ㲻¸Ǯʱѡ
  • - Dzϻط㣬Ϊ֪ڽףṩ񣬽˩㡣
  • - ΪʲôһҲ˵Ĺ˾㱻˩ˡһ£㻻ֲƷ㻹ܵ
  • - ¼֪Ǹתʱ̡֪Ͷ¼ȻǸתʱͶʡ
  • - Ҫоÿҹ˾Ƕ̶Ȳͬشʱ㡣
  • - ΪһߣҪһֱо๫˾۲ǵ
  • - һ֮УܷĻᡣ
  • - Ĺ˾ûбҪ
  • - һĹ˾Ҳ
  • - ¼ܶͶʣCaptialIQһģģʽĹ˾ڹ̷ͬģʽͶʡ
  • - ¼ϲ˽ֶϲ˽ѡ첮׵CEOͶӺ¼Ͷˡ
  • - ÿҵѧϰ͹۲죬ѧϰڶ̬ж
  • - ûʲôһɲġһжڸı䣬ΪʲôҪѧϰ
  • - гڸı䣬΢вˡ
  • - ҪһԾ̬Ҫʱ׼жͻĶץסᡣ

            

            

Ƽ޹˾:ṩȫCIO滮Ѷ
չ
  • ѯ

  • Ƽ޹˾WEBͷ
  • 绰ѯ

  • 13693577495